REPORTED MURDERED CASES IN PAKISTAN: APPLICATION OF SEASONAL BOX-JENKINS METHODS

MUHAMMAD IMRAN MUHAMMAD IMRAN, JAMAL ABDUL NASIR JAMAL ABDUL NASIR, Najeeb Ul Rehman Najeeb Ul Rehman

Abstract


  

Forecasting about crimes is often challengeable but possible by carefully implementation of forecasting models. Prediction about murdered incidents is an emerging for law enforcement agencies to adopt preventative policies and tactical operations.  This study therefore aimed to uncover the pattern of reported homicide related deaths in Pakistan as well as development of mathematical model by incorporating the seasonal Box Jenkins methods. SARIMA (111) x (011)12 is a correct model by taking into account the model selection criterion namely, AIC, HQ and SIC. The reported murdered cases in 2012 were 13846 while established model, SARIMA (111) x (011)12 revealed that the increment 442 cases are expected in 2013.no


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