POPLUATION PROJECTION MODELS: A REVIEW 1960 - 2015 A 50-Year Review Journey of Population Projection Models

MUHAMMAD IMRAN IMRAN

Abstract


Projection of vital events is statistically significant and provides the foundation for precise planning and policy. The present study aimed to explore the most extensively used projection techniques as well as underlining the modification and the theoretical contribution in various projection approaches by reviewing the fifty four article of seven well known journals namely Asian Pacific Population Journal (APPJ), Asian Population Studies (APS), Bio Demography and Social Biology (BDSB), European Journal Population (EJP), Mathematical Population Studies (MPS), Demographic Research (DR) and Demography (D). The findings revealed that cohort component method is widely used as a standard method for population projection as well as the probabilistic projection methods including the stochastic time series models. The extended methods like extended cohort component model, extended Lee-Carter method and newel methods of projection namely pearsonian Type 1curve, elementary approach, polynomial models, macro micro projection, joint probabilistic projection and sequential propensity household projection models  are proposed.


Keywords


Cohort component method, Projection Techniques

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